Interested in seeing how this 2008 election is going? Wondering who’s got the advantage as they head down the home stretch? Even who is predicted to take control of the White House? Stop right there. FiveThirtyEight.com has all the answers you are looking for. It even has breakdowns by state, popular vote, electoral vote, you name it. What’s the percentage McCain has of winning New Hampshire? It’s on there, 8%. How about Obama winning North Carolina? 34%. The website has all different types of scenarios and the likelihood of each coming true.
The most noticeable statistics are the pie charts of popular vote, electoral vote, and win percentage. I was thinking to myself how interesting these charts are, and it made me realize how unfair they are. The popular vote gives the slight edge to Obama, then the electoral vote more blue (democratic), and the win percentage almost entirely blue.
This graphic demonstration represents a fundamental flaw in the electoral college. The overall popular vote is going to be tight, but Obama’s chances of winning are almost guaranteed. It’s like two evenly matched teams playing each other with a huge point spread. For example, if the Cowboys play the Giants and one of the teams is getting 20 points. It doesn’t make any sense. That’s the problem with the electoral vote, and this visual makes it obvious.
There’s all the commercial and television campaigns encouraging people to vote and that every vote counts, but what’s the point of a republican living in Massachusetts voting? What’s his incentive? His candidate isn’t going to get anything out of his vote. Maybe the electoral college should distribute its votes based upon percent of popular votes in each state. So if McCain only gets 7 or 8% of the vote in Massachusetts, as least he’ll get one of the electoral votes. I’m just saying, let’s eliminate that point spread.
(Graph re-displays info given in pie charts on website).
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